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US U. S. mid-term elections 2018: predictions, speculations, discussions

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Mid-term elections are coming up on November 6.

Will the Democrats pull themselves together and at least take the House of Representatives? Has the Kavanaugh nomination process ended up galvanizing support for the Republicans? Or is there a larger effect in bringing out people to vote against them? Will Trump weather the storm? Or can we hope this election makes him a 'lame duck' for the rest of his presidency?
 

beancounter

The Fire That Burns Within
The Democrats will gain a number of seats, but it won't be enough to give them control.

With galvanizing figures like Hillary, Schumer, Warren, Pelosi, etc the Republicans have plenty of ammo to fire up their base and demoralize moderate democrats.

Predictably, the Democrats will rely on the white, educated urban women vote to carry them over the finish line to victory, just like they did in 2016...oh wait....
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
I feel hopeful that the Republicans will lose control of the House, at least.

This poll sounds like an outlier, but nevertheless, the Democrats should be in a clear lead:
According to the survey, 57 per cent of likely voters said they plan to support Democrats in the upcoming elections, compared to 40 per cent of respondents who said they will vote for Republicans.
More: Democrats hold 17-point lead against Republicans ahead of November midterms in latest poll (29. Oct. 2018)
 

KLS52

Only Kindness Matters
I’m not very hopeful about the midterm election but I’m hopeful I’m wrong. :p
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Wasn't Clinton leading in every single poll for the presidential race ?
Yes, and they were right in a way since she won the popular vote! For these mid-terms, though, the Dems appear to be ahead by a larger margin than the polls for Clinton, so it would seem more likely that the Dems could win both the popular vote and the actual Congress seats.
 

shyvas

Deity
Forum Moderator
Yes, and they were right in a way since she won the popular vote! For these mid-terms, though, the Dems appear to be ahead by a larger margin than the polls for Clinton, so it would seem more likely that the Dems could win both the popular vote and the actual Congress seats.
They were all wrong. The US polling system is not based on the popular vote.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
My predictions, based on what I've read and heard from reliable media sources :) : Republicans will easily keep their majority in the Senate, the Democrats will win back the majority of the House. I have no idea about Governors as that's not been discussed much. The turnout will be high, which usually favours the Democrats, but this time around that effect is not as clear.
 
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