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U.S. about to attack Iran

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
The writing is on the wall: Now that there are no longer any grown-ups left in the U.S. administration, and they've been replaced by people like Mike Pompeo (who thinks Trump was raised to the presidency by God to protect Israel) and neo-con John Bolton, the stage is set for a confrontation with Iran.

Trump has already broken the anti-nuke deal that Obama, the EU, Russia and China negotiated with Iran. He's imposed sanctions on Iran and anyone who trades with them. And now a U.S. aircraft carrier, an assault ship and B-52 bombers are on their way to the Persian Gulf.

Four oil tankers were attacked with explosives on Sunday, though no one claimed responsibility. No one was injured and the damages to the ships seemed to be above the waterline. However, now the U.S. is pointing the finger of blame at Iran ...

Unless Russia and or China intervene, Iran and the Middle East could soon be in flames.
 

Andy_T

Addicted Poster
Forum Moderator
... and here I am, discussing on Facebook with fellow "progressive and enlightened" people who still claim that actually "both parties are the same". Sigh.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Yemeni Houthi rebels appear to have blown up two Saudi oil pipelines. This is obviously totally and exclusively Iran's fault. The Saudis' war in Yemen where the population is starving to death and keeps getting caught in the crossfire has nothing to do with it, obviously. The Saudis are friends and good allies, you see. Meanwhile, western media has mostly forgotten about this war and moved on to more important news, like the Eurovision song contest final soon to be hosted in Israel :fp:
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
The U.S. State department is pulling all their non-emergency staff out of Iraq due to the prospect of war / conflict with Iran.

Meanwhile, Germany and the Netherlands are suspending their training of Iraqi and Kurdish-Iraqi troops. They've made this decision together with their partners in the coalition, i.e. they've probably been told to do this by the U.S.
 
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Andy_T

Addicted Poster
Forum Moderator
I, personally, am surprised it took Dump so long to come up with an excuse to attack another country, after all, the one single thing that ‘murricans across party lines applauded was his bullshit attack on Syria ...
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Two more oil tankers attacked, causing more severe damage than last time. The US blames Iran, claims to have evidence:
Crews rescued after Gulf tankers hit in 'attacks' (13. June 2019)

We know the US wants a confrontation with Iran, and has been doing its best to increase the tensions in the area. There could be forces in Iran that also wants a confrontation, though I can't see how that could be perceived as a good idea from their side.

Well, I'm sure we all remember Colin Powell's PowerPoint presentation in the UN and the supposed "Yellow Cake", and a few decades earlier the Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident. So, when the US cries 'wolf', I'm not immediately impressed.
 

Jamie in Chile

World Class Member
I don't think Russia or China will get involved, at least not in a military sense. Especially not China. Russia I wouldn't rule out, actually, but seems doubtful. Can't see the EU getting involved or any major European country getting involved in this either in a military sense.

I think this is between the US and the countries in the region.

I don't think anyone has a clear idea of what's really going on at the moment.
 

Jamie in Chile

World Class Member
I don't think the Trump administration truly wants a war. I think what they want, perhaps naively, is to make some noise, bully others a bit, and then have Iran say oh sorry sir please remove your sanctions and we will not fund any groups outside Iran any more, and we will love and respect Israel for ever more and please inspect our nuclear facilities that we are immediately decommissioning.

So my guess is they don't want a war. But, it's just an educated guess. Could be totally wrong.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
I don't think the Trump administration truly wants a war. I think what they want, perhaps naively, is to make some noise, bully others a bit, and then have Iran say oh sorry sir please remove your sanctions and we will not fund any groups outside Iran any more, and we will love and respect Israel for ever more and please inspect our nuclear facilities that we are immediately decommissioning.

So my guess is they don't want a war. But, it's just an educated guess. Could be totally wrong.
I think there are different views within the administration, but most of them are at least in favour of regime change, and they probably won't object to some smaller amount of force to help that happen. However, there are certain lobby groups and allies that might actually want an even more hard-line approach, and the danger is that they might be able to escalate the conflict and pull the US into a more extensive confrontation. I'm guessing this is not something Trump himself is terribly keen on, as it could turn into a PR disaster and hamper his chances for re-election.
 

Jamie in Chile

World Class Member
With Trump himself, I get the feeling he would just like a big foreign policy win of some sort. Whether it's something with North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, or something else, he probably isn't too fussy. Something to feed his ego a bit and make him look good.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
I don't think Russia or China will get involved, at least not in a military sense. Especially not China. Russia I wouldn't rule out, actually, but seems doubtful. Can't see the EU getting involved or any major European country getting involved in this either in a military sense.

I think this is between the US and the countries in the region.
Yes, I largely agree. Though, the UK will obviously be wanting to support the US as usual, and there could be other European countries in a similar position. I can see Russia stepping in on the diplomacy side, but I don't think they want a direct confrontation with the US. Then again, is an all-out war with Iran likely? I.e. similar to the war with Iraq? That is exactly the kind of conflict Trump really doesn't want. If, on the other hand the situation evolves similar to the civil war in Syria (i.e. with proxies), then Russia could get more directly involved as they will probably want to avoid regime change.
 
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Jamie in Chile

World Class Member
Russia will hate the idea of the US being involved in any military way in a country that nearly borders Russia (you can get from Russia to Iran by sailing across the Caspian Sea without going through another country) and will speak angrily against it. Governments that are dictatorships that don't arguably have any true legitimacy (China and Russia) are always staunch defenders of current governments and opponents of regime change because they fear the same thing happening to themselves one day. Russia and China could hardly call for regime change of undemocratic, human rights abusing governments without being hypocritical. It was notable that Russia and China and Turkey were almost the only countries to support Maduro in Venezuela. Russia and China want - and need - a world in which whoever is in power should keep that power regardless of whether they have earned it, deserved it etc.

However my gut feeling is that supporting Iran would be too much even for Putin, who did support the Syrian government. At least large amounts of Russian troops on the ground I don't believe it. Maybe financial support to Iran or some of Russia's undercover, unofficial soldiers that they will lie about (like in Crimea). I could also believe Russia might just stay out of it.

I think attitudes in the UK will have shifted against Middle Eastern intervention compared to previous years. The war in Iraq had a lasting effect on public opinion about UK involvement in the Middle East, or foreign wars or regime change in general, and direct military intervention in an equivalent conflict seems unthinkable at this point. Secondly, the UK will be less inclined to get involved in anything until Brexit is resolved - they are totally paralyzed. And thirdly, the UK is moving to renewables and away from fossil fuels. In a scenario where oil supplies decline and prices increase that would only be a short term issue for the UK and would actually hasten the move to hybrid and electric cars in the medium term anyway which would be a good thing anyway. I can see the UK allowing US aircraft to refuel in UK airbases but that's about it. Of course, the UK response is a bit difficult to judge when we don't know who our leader is going to be! If Corbyn gets in, the UK's default response to such situations is likely be somewhere between dithering and staying out of it.

Anyway, the odds of a full-on war look fairly low to me at this point. Let's hope so for the sake of the people in the region.
 
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