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UK Brexit aftermath/repercussions

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
BoJo and his government are now trying to get a deal, but it's very late in the game. If they somehow manage to work out a deal within the next few days, then there could actually be a majority for it in parliament as many Leaver MPs are now concerned about the consequences of not getting a deal, which would probably mean another delay.

 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
BoJo has made a deal with the EU, although the DUP has said they can't support it.

The new deal removes the backstop, but Northern Ireland must stay aligned with a limited set of EU rules. They remain in the UK's own customs territory, and the N.I. assembly will get to vote on whether they want to remain in this arrangement every 4 years.

The UK parliament will probably hold a vote on the new deal at some point soon ...

The pressure is now on the DUP to accept the deal, despite what they've said so far.

(17. Oct. 2019)
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Parliament will vote on the deal tomorrow! It's going to be a very close vote - it could go either way. That said, I'll be more surprised if they approve the deal than if they don't.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Looks like there will be another delay to Brexit, as long as the EU accepts it. The Letwin amendment won a majority today, and triggered the Benn Act, which compels the government to ask for an extension. As a consequence, there was no vote on the new Brexit deal, as the government decided they may as well wait a bit and try to persuade more MPs to support it.

Edit: Or I may have misunderstood this. The Letwin amendment says that the House of Commons withholds approval of the new Brexit deal unless and until "legislation" has passed. (What does that mean, exactly?) The objective is to prevent the UK crashing or without a deal. And Reese-Moggs says the government will want to hold a vote in the Commons on Monday on the new Brexit deal. I'm not really sure I understand what this all means ...!
 
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shyvas

Deity
Forum Moderator
Edit: Or I may have misunderstood this. The Letwin amendment says that the House of Commons withholds approval of the new Brexit deal unless and until "legislation" has passed. (What does that mean, exactly?) The objective is to prevent the UK crashing or without a deal. And Reese-Moggs says the government will want to hold a vote in the Commons on Monday on the new Brexit deal. I'm not really sure I understand what this all means ...!
It means that Brexit doesn't happen until all stages of the implementation bill are passed. It's like a security net to prevent the UK leaving the Eu without a deal on the 31st.
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Some quite significant Brexit developments tonight:

The House of Commons has approved the new Withdrawal Agreement with a fairly significant majority (329 - 299), but rejected the proposed timetable for it passing through Parliament (322 - 308). The Speaker says the bill is no "in limbo", and the PM has said he now wants an election if the EU grants the extension. This is further than former PM Theresa May ever got. When or if the bill passes through Parliament, it can be amended - I'm not sure to what extent, e.g. if it can be turned into the sort of "soft Brexit" favoured by some in Labour. That said, the nature of Brexit will also be shaped by whatever trade agreement will be negotiated with the EU in the next stage, something which will probably take at least two years to complete.
(22. Oct. 2019)
 

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
Today was going to be the big Brexit Day, but surprise, surprise, it got postponed again. Now the date is 31st Jan. 2020. And there is going to be a UK general election on 12th Dec. Presumably, BoJo should be able to win easily as the big issue for the election is Brexit, and Labour is still somewhat split on this question, whereas the Conservatives are now a definitive Brexit party, although they have lost a number of MPs in the process.
 

Amy SF

Dweller in nature

Indian Summer

Cult Leader
Administrator
One issue at the moment is that there is very little scrutiny in the media over the new withdrawal agreement that BoJo negotiated. The discussion is only pro vs anti Brexit. There is no discussion based on the premise that Brexit will happen and we need a workable deal. This sort of discussion could have forced Brexit supporting traditional Labour voters to think twice about their voting plans for the upcoming general election.
 
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